The Muse, Championship Round: Four Things to Keep in Mind on the Best Football Weekend of the Year

[Posted to Cippin on Sports, 1/18/13] 

Knowledgeable fan = happy fan.  Here are a few things to ruminate on as you watch this Sunday's conference championship games.

Ravens vs. Patriots: Turnovers and the run game.

The Patriots rushed for 5.1 yards per carry against the Texans on Sunday, while the Ravens held their opponent (Denver) to 3.0 yards per attempt.  Denver, however, came at the Ravens with a rush attack ranked only 15^th in DVOA, while New England is 4^th in that category.  Further, Baltimore allowed 5.1 yards per carry two weeks ago against a Colts team ranked 17^th on the ground.  The Ravens need to live up to their regular-season performance in this area—they were fifth in DVOA against the run—or the Patriots will be very difficult to stop as they combine a successful ground game with their top-ranked air attack.

The Muse, Divisional Round: Some Numbers to Mull Over for This Weekend’s Games

[Posted to Cippin on Sports, 1/11/13]

The knowledgeable fan is the happy fan.  Here are a few things to keep in mind as you watch this weekend:

Ravens vs. Broncos: The third-down battle.

The Baltimore defense, which during the regular season held opponents to a 36.6% third-down conversion rate, allowed the Colts a 45% success rate (9 for 20) on Sunday.  Denver, the Ravens’ opponent this Saturday, ranked third in the league in this category during the regular season, succeeding on 45.1% of third-down conversion attempts.  It would behoove the Ravens on Saturday afternoon to find a way to get the ball out of Peyton Manning’s hands whenever they have the chance.

The “Tuesday” Muse Math-tastic Playoff Preview

[Posted to Cippin on Sports, 1/4/13]

Considering my tendency toward obsessive analysis, I am strangely uncomfortable making predictions.  While it can be entertaining to read others’ ideas on how upcoming games, playoff series, or seasons will play out, I regard the future as too unknowable for me to venture, with any degree of confidence, speculation as to what it will bring.  (If you accuse me of harboring petty neuroses, I will not argue.)  What I do enjoy, though, is the formulation of hypotheses to test out analytical tools, and that is what I’ll be doing here.  (If you accuse me of predilections toward unhealthy pastimes, again, I will not argue.)

The Tuesday Muse, Week 14: Disparate Happenings around the League

[Published at Cippin on Sports, 12/13/12]

Too much stuff (important and otherwise) went on in the last nine days to focus on any single thing in this week’s (apologetically late) “Tuesday” Muse.  So, gumbo it is.

The Rounds

• The bounty case is over (!).  We hope.  Anyway, Paul Tagliabue, while not exonerating the players in any kind of ethical sense (but who needs that?), has overturned their suspensions, complaining that “this case has been contaminated by the coaches and others in the Saints’ organization.”

• The league, which last week may have tried to cut this decision off at the pass, is still somehow declaring it a victory.

• Jonathan Vilma and his defamation suit will be sticking around.

• And Scott Fujita celebrated his exoneration with a little Grateful Dead.

The Tuesday Muse, Week 13: The Falcons' Success in the Close Ones, and other happenings around the league

[Published at Cippin on Sports, 12/4/12]

The Falcons, speeding off to an 11-1 record through the season’s first thirteen weeks, clinched the NFC South on Thursday with a win over the Saints.  They have done so with a lineup on the offensive side of the ball that is almost identical to last year’s squad, and that helped the team to a (still not shabby) 10-6 finish and a wild-card entry to (and first-round exit from) the playoffs.

The Tuesday Muse, Week 12: The New Niners, and other happenings around the league

[Published at Cippin on Sports, 11/27/12]

Like many young sports fans, I grew up as a shameless frontrunner.  It was with strict devotion that, from 2,500 miles away, I rooted for the great 49ers teams of the 80’s and 90’s—those West Coast artisans tearing through the league, playing brilliant, lyrical, memorable football.  John Taylor in the back of the end zone; 55-10 in the Superdome; Jerry Rice splitting defenses and setting records.

The dynasty lasted as long as it lasted, and that was a long time—thirteen years from the first Super Bowl victory (1981) to the fifth (1994).  Following Steve Young’s last full season (1998) San Francisco finished above .500 only twice (and not after 2002) until the hiring of Jim Harbaugh in 2011.  While it is super-premature to herald this new era of success (22-7 over the past season-and-a-half) as a return to glory, the 49ers are displaying their greatest dominance since the mid-1990’s, and are doing so in a fashion that is a sharp departure from the identity that Bill Walsh and Joe Montana stamped on the franchise.

While the Niners of old operated a devastatingly fluent, surgical offense (Montana to Craig, Montana to Jones, Montana to Rice, touchdown), the system helmed by Alex Smith (and now Colin Kaepernick) offers an unusual mixture of jumbo sets, downfield attacks, and (with Kaepernick) read-option plays.  In 2011, San Francisco used formations of 2+ tight ends or 6+ offensive linemen 60% of the time, the second highest frequency in the league (per the Football Outsiders).  In 2012, while they have continued to utilize such jumbo sets,* the San Francisco also ranks third in the league in yards per passing attempt.  And on top of all this, in the past three games (two of which he started), Colin Kaepernick has accounted for almost a fifth of the 49ers rushing attempts (19%), and 23% of the their total rushing yards.  To put his contribution in perspective, over the course of the season (during which he has started only two games), Kaepernick has more rushing yards than all but four quarterbacks in the league, all of whom are full-time starters: Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton, Michael Vick, and Russell Wilson.

This all adds up to the 11^th-ranked offense (by total yards) in the league—nothing spectacular, but more than sufficient as a compliment to San Francisco’s truly dominant aspect: its defense, which is ranked sixth in the league in FO’s defensive DVOA, first in points allowed, and second in yards allowed.  Together, these phases are combining to create a top-tier operation, and if the 49ers are going to take the next step under Harbaugh this season, it will be through a system not only unique to the league, but also far different from the notion of what the franchise itself represents historically.

* FO strategic tendency data for 2012 is not yet available, but, per FO snap count data, out of 684 total offensive snaps, first-string tight end Vernon Davis has been on the field for 640 (93.6%), while second-string TE Delanie Walker has participated in just over half (358 snaps, 52.3%), indicating a significant use of two-TE sets by the 49ers.

----

Box of the Week

Cleveland Browns 20, Pittsburgh Steelers 14

The Steelers turned the ball over eight times on Sunday in Cleveland, and recovered their own fumbles three more times.  Garnering one interception from Brandon Weeden, Pittsburgh ended the day with a -7 turnover margin, one-third of the league’s worst overall margin (Kansas City’s -21).  Pittsburgh’s +/- on the season thus dropped in one week from -3 to -10, while Cleveland’s improved from +1 to +8.

----

The Rounds:

• Brandon Jacobs had his first carry of the year on Sunday.  Joe Buck: “Remember Brandon Jacobs?  He’s in the game.”

• Phil Dawson’s mom’s words ring true in Cleveland.

• The Saints continue to rally around their absentee coach.

• Willie Parker’s perspective on concussions is why the issue will never completely go away.

• “I just did what any super hero would do.”

• Fireman Ed hangs it up, as Jets fans continue to be the most Jets-fans ever.

• The Eagles’ HR department is circling in for a landing on Andy Reid.

• It’s flex season, and so far, no changes.

• Who wouldn’t want a picture with Peyton Manning?  (Or Michael Vick’s autograph, for that matter?)

---

Greg Blume writes here and rambles there.

The Tuesday Muse, Week 10: The Year of the Kicker, and other happenings around the league

[Originally posted at Cippin on Sports, 11/15/12]

If you squint at “Thursday,” it looks like “Tuesday.”  (Sorry, guys!)

On Monday, Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz noted that this season, not a single field goal attempt below thirty yards has gone astray.  While such a pace almost certainly will not be maintained (right?), looking at the last twenty years of league-wide performance, only one season (2008) has even come close to this level of accuracy (all stats via Pro-Football-Reference.com):

Year	0-19 FGA	0-19 FGM	20-29 FGA	20-29 FGM	Success Rate
2012	8	8	142	142	100.0%
2011	16	16	296	285	96.5%
2010	19	19	270	257	95.5%
2009	11	11	273	264	96.8%
2008	7	7	266	261	98.2%
2007	17	17	284	270	95.3%
2006	15	15	269	257	95.8%
2005	13	13	272	259	95.4%
2004	12	12	252	243	96.6%
2003	6	6	281	270	96.2%
2002	13	12	257	242	94.1%
2001	10	9	267	253	94.6%
2000	31	29	240	224	93.4%
1999	25	25	261	247	95.1%
1998	22	20	230	219	94.8%
1997	20	20	257	243	94.9%
1996	20	20	281	266	95.0%
1995	19	18	265	243	91.9%
1994	22	22	239	229	96.2%
1993	28	28	246	229	93.8%

For 2012 to fall to an average rate, there would have to be a sudden, and extreme, drop off, which does not seem likely, even as we approach the winter months.

This phenomenon is part of an unprecedented jump in accuracy overall:

Year	FGA	FGM	Success Rate
2012	591	510	86.3%
2011	1011	838	82.9%
2010	959	789	82.3%
2009	930	756	81.3%
2008	1000	845	84.5%
2007	960	795	82.8%
2006	942	767	81.4%
2005	967	783	81.0%
2004	870	703	80.8%
2003	954	756	79.2%
2002	951	737	77.5%
2001	959	732	76.3%
2000	917	731	79.7%
1999	964	749	77.7%
1998	889	708	79.6%
1997	906	708	78.1%
1996	915	732	80.0%
1995	954	738	77.4%
1994	811	640	78.9%
1993	879	673	76.6%

While there has been a general upward trend in kicker performance over the last decade, this year’s jump of almost four percentage points is the most extreme, by a wide margin, of any single-year improvement over the last twenty seasons.

There have also been two extraordinary developments on the level of individual performance.  The first is the fact that, in only ten weeks, three kickers have made field goals from 60 yards or beyond: Jay Feely (week 1, vs. Green Bay), Rams rookie Greg Zuerlein (week 4, vs. Seattle), and Jay Feely (week 6, vs. Buffalo).  The only other season in which more than one 60-yarder was made was 2006, when both Matt Bryant and Rob Bironas accomplished the feat.

Secondly, rookie kickers have shown exceptional flash this year, as the top three leaders in field goals of 50+ are all first-year players: Blair Walsh (Minnesota) and Zuerlein have both hit five from that distance, and undrafted rookie Justin Tucker (Baltimore) is tied for third in the league with four.

The Year of the Kicker?  It sounds funny, but there are definitely some good vibes coming out of the fraternity this season.

----

Box of the Week

Seattle Seahawks 28, New York Jets 7

After Sunday’s loss in Seattle, Rex Ryan said that he is sticking with Mark Sanchez as his starting quarterback.  Consciously or not, though, the Jets may be inching toward a change, as Tim Tebow’s playing time on offense increased significantly last week.  Tebow was on the field for eight offensive snaps against Seattle.  That may not seem like a lot, but it comprised 15% of New York’s offensive plays; in only one other game this season has Tebow been on the field as an offensive player that frequently (numbers via Football Outsiders):

Week	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	10
Opponent	BUF	@PIT	@MIA	SF	HOU	IND	@NE	MIA	@SEA
% of off. snaps:	14%	5%	15%	13%	12%	9%	6%	6%	15%

Sunday’s game represented a spike in Tebow’s offensive participation from the previous three weeks, and he also threw the ball more than he ever had, completing all three of his pass attempts.  Again, that number doesn’t seem like a lot, but it doubled his total pass attempts on the season.

All of which may mean little—or quite a lot, as the Jets coaching staff feels more pressure than ever to get the 3-6 team on track, and as tensions over the issue begin to boil over in the Jets locker room.

----

The Rounds:

• “Snee ruled it out, saying: ‘His name is Little Bear. Big Bear, Little Bear. That’s it.’” [h/t @katiebakes]

• A number of players in last week’s games managed to stay on the field after suffering concussions, putting the league into a tight spot regarding its in-game screening procedures.

• The plodding drama of the bounty suspensions is never going away.

• Rob Ryan’s defense has a restaurant sponsor.

• Rex Ryan’s mantelpiece has a new trophy.

• Tie games are the most disconcerting.

• Randy Moss, in his twilight years, is clearly gunning hard to win a Super Bowl.

• “Stats is for girls.”